diff --git a/.github/workflows/ci.yml b/.github/workflows/ci.yml
index ff863ef..37a6882 100644
--- a/.github/workflows/ci.yml
+++ b/.github/workflows/ci.yml
@@ -37,6 +37,9 @@ jobs:
           # absent; in CI a skip must be a failure, or the case could
           # quietly stop running (issue #3's test contract).
           CEREMONY_REQUIRE_NPM: 1
+          # Same contract for the yq-backed labeler.yml parse cases
+          # (#130): yq is preinstalled on ubuntu-latest, optional locally.
+          CEREMONY_REQUIRE_YQ: 1
         run: bash test/run.sh
 
   # The release exercise (issue #9's scratch caller) on every PR, so the
diff --git a/actions/labels-reconcile/labels-reconcile.sh b/actions/labels-reconcile/labels-reconcile.sh
index d02e6aa..633e011 100755
--- a/actions/labels-reconcile/labels-reconcile.sh
+++ b/actions/labels-reconcile/labels-reconcile.sh
@@ -175,6 +175,7 @@ set_required_bots() { # the PR author is recused by construction
 # The state machine. Pure functions over these globals, set per PR:
 #   DRAFT        true|false
 #   HEAD_SHA     the PR's current head commit
+#   BASE_SHA     the PR's base branch head (the release-shape guard's ref)
 #   REQUESTED    newline-separated logins with a review currently requested
 #   REVIEWS_JSON JSON array of submitted (non-PENDING) reviews
 #   MERGEABLE    MERGEABLE | CONFLICTING | UNKNOWN  (GitHub's own verdict)
@@ -497,6 +498,38 @@ $(configured_label_rows "$LABELS_CONF")"
 
 has_label() { grep -qxF "$1" <<<"$LABELS"; }
 
+release_shape_warning() { # $1 = PR, $2 = head version, $3 = base version
+  # The #128 incident's guard (#130): a release-shaped PR — bare X.Y.Z at
+  # its head where the base says something else — reaching the board with
+  # no `release` label is exactly the state whose merge would publish
+  # nothing, so the sweep says so instead of letting the merge door
+  # discover it. A WARNING, never a write: `release` is declared intent,
+  # and the reconciler does not guess intent (LABELS.md's rule for
+  # `blocked`/`release`). An unreadable version blocks nothing — the
+  # sweep must not nag on facts it did not read.
+  local n="$1" head_ver="$2" base_ver="$3"
+  [ -n "$head_ver" ] || return 0
+  grep -qE '^[0-9]+\.[0-9]+\.[0-9]+$' <<<"$head_ver" || return 0
+  [ "$head_ver" != "$base_ver" ] || return 0
+  echo "::warning::labels: #$n is release-shaped (version $base_ver -> $head_ver at its head) but carries no release label — the merge door reads that label as declared intent and will refuse without it; if this is the ceremony PR, apply release (#130; the #128 incident)"
+}
+
+tree_version() { # $1 = ref → that tree's version via the API, or nothing
+  # Both backends, no checkout: a VERSION file first, package.json's
+  # version field second (jq, not node — a read needs no npm machinery).
+  # Every failure path prints nothing: the caller treats "could not read"
+  # as "not release-shaped" rather than warning on a guess.
+  local ref="$1" ver
+  ver="$(gh api "repos/$REPO/contents/VERSION?ref=$ref" --jq '.content' 2>/dev/null \
+    | base64 -d 2>/dev/null | tr -d '[:space:]')"
+  if [ -z "$ver" ]; then
+    ver="$(gh api "repos/$REPO/contents/package.json?ref=$ref" --jq '.content' 2>/dev/null \
+      | base64 -d 2>/dev/null | jq -r '.version // empty' 2>/dev/null)"
+  fi
+  [ -z "$ver" ] || printf '%s\n' "$ver"
+  return 0
+}
+
 reconcile_pr() { # $1 = PR number; relies on the globals set from its fetch
   local n="$1" desired remove s args last_activity last_activity_epoch age
 
@@ -581,6 +614,13 @@ reconcile_pr() { # $1 = PR number; relies on the globals set from its fetch
     fi
   fi
 
+  # ---- the release-shape guard (#130): a warning, never a write --------
+  # Drafts are exempt (the build phase is the builder's); the version
+  # reads cost two API calls and only on PRs missing the label.
+  if [ "$DRAFT" != true ] && ! has_label release; then
+    release_shape_warning "$n" "$(tree_version "$HEAD_SHA")" "$(tree_version "$BASE_SHA")"
+  fi
+
   # ---- merge-next: cleared, never set ----------------------------------
   # Queue order is INTENT — which PR should land first is a judgement about
   # conflicts and dependencies that GitHub knows nothing about, so the
@@ -656,6 +696,7 @@ main() {
       AUTHOR="$(jq -r '.user.login' <<<"$PR_JSON")"
       set_required_bots "$AUTHOR"
       HEAD_SHA="$(jq -r '.head.sha' <<<"$PR_JSON")"
+      BASE_SHA="$(jq -r '.base.sha' <<<"$PR_JSON")"
       LABELS="$(jq -r '.labels[].name' <<<"$PR_JSON")"
       REQUESTED="$(jq -r '.requested_reviewers[].login' <<<"$PR_JSON")"
       # PENDING reviews are unsubmitted drafts in someone's browser — not a verdict
diff --git a/actions/labels-scope/labels-scope.sh b/actions/labels-scope/labels-scope.sh
index 538652b..17f4eb6 100644
--- a/actions/labels-scope/labels-scope.sh
+++ b/actions/labels-scope/labels-scope.sh
@@ -45,7 +45,8 @@ run() { # every mutation goes through here — DRY_RUN=1 logs instead of doing
 }
 
 glob_to_regex() { # $1 = glob (the subset above) → anchored ERE, one line
-  local glob="$1" out="" c i=0 n="${#glob}"
+  local glob="$1" out="" c i=0 n
+  n="${#glob}"
   while [ "$i" -lt "$n" ]; do
     c="${glob:i:1}"
     case "$c" in
@@ -113,7 +114,7 @@ derive_labels() { # $1 = "label<TAB>glob" lines, $2 = changed files (one per
   # line) → matched labels, one per line, config order, deduped
   local tsv="$1" files="$2" label glob matched=$'\n'
   [ -n "$files" ] || return 0
-  while IFS="$(printf '\t')" read -r label glob; do
+  while IFS=$'\t' read -r label glob; do
     [ -n "$label" ] || continue
     case "$matched" in *$'\n'"$label"$'\n'*) continue ;; esac
     if printf '%s\n' "$files" | grep -qE -- "$(glob_to_regex "$glob")"; then
diff --git a/test/labels-reconcile.test.sh b/test/labels-reconcile.test.sh
index 4cb1c14..f31e0cc 100755
--- a/test/labels-reconcile.test.sh
+++ b/test/labels-reconcile.test.sh
@@ -92,6 +92,28 @@ expect "unrelated scope labels do not affect a complete core taxonomy" "" \
 scope:consumer-one
 scope:consumer-two")"
 
+# -- the release-shape guard warns, never writes (#130; the #128 incident) ----
+# The caller gates on NOT has_label release and NOT draft; these fix the
+# version matrix. The warning is one line per call — reconcile_pr runs once
+# per PR per sweep, so "exactly one warning per sweep" is by construction.
+shape_warning="$(release_shape_warning 41 2.0.0 2.0.0-dev)"
+expect "bare head over a -dev base warns" yes \
+  "$(grep -qF '::warning::' <<<"$shape_warning" && echo yes || echo no)"
+expect "...naming the PR and both versions" yes \
+  "$(grep -qF '#41 is release-shaped (version 2.0.0-dev -> 2.0.0' <<<"$shape_warning" && echo yes || echo no)"
+expect "...and pointing at the release label, not setting it" yes \
+  "$(grep -qF 'apply release' <<<"$shape_warning" && echo yes || echo no)"
+expect "an ordinary -dev head is silent" "" \
+  "$(release_shape_warning 41 2.0.1-dev 2.0.0-dev)"
+expect "a bare head equal to the base is silent" "" \
+  "$(release_shape_warning 41 2.0.0 2.0.0)"
+expect "an rc head is silent — pre-releases are not the merge door's shape" "" \
+  "$(release_shape_warning 41 2.0.0-rc1 2.0.0-dev)"
+expect "an unreadable head version is silent — never nag on a guess" "" \
+  "$(release_shape_warning 41 "" 2.0.0-dev)"
+expect "a bare head over an unreadable base still warns" yes \
+  "$(release_shape_warning 41 2.0.0 "" | grep -qF '::warning::' && echo yes || echo no)"
+
 # -- drafts are building, whoever is requested --------------------------------
 DRAFT=true HEAD_SHA=head1 REQUESTED="" REVIEWS_JSON='[]'
 expect "draft PR is building" state:building "$(decide_state)"
diff --git a/test/labels-scope.test.sh b/test/labels-scope.test.sh
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..8ea2997
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/labels-scope.test.sh
@@ -0,0 +1,134 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+set -u
+
+ROOT="$(cd "$(dirname "${BASH_SOURCE[0]}")/.." && pwd)"
+# shellcheck source=test/harness.sh
+source "$ROOT/test/harness.sh"
+# shellcheck source=actions/labels-scope/labels-scope.sh
+source "$ROOT/actions/labels-scope/labels-scope.sh"
+
+TMP="$(mktemp -d)"
+trap 'rm -rf "$TMP"' EXIT
+
+TAB="$(printf '\t')"
+
+# --- glob_to_regex: the minimatch subset the family actually uses ------------
+
+check "glob: ** crosses slashes" 0 '^lib/.*$' glob_to_regex 'lib/**'
+check "glob: * stays inside a segment" 0 '^[^/]*\.md$' glob_to_regex '*.md'
+check "glob: ? is one non-slash char" 0 '^doc[^/]/x$' glob_to_regex 'doc?/x'
+check "glob: literal path is anchored whole" 0 '^README$' glob_to_regex 'README'
+check "glob: dots are escaped, not wildcards" 0 \
+  '^commands/users-[^/]*\.sh$' glob_to_regex 'commands/users-*.sh'
+check "glob: regex specials are literal" 0 '^a\+b\{c\}\(d\)$' glob_to_regex 'a+b{c}(d)'
+
+# --- derive_labels: pure matching over parsed rows ---------------------------
+
+cfg="scope:release-flow${TAB}lib/**
+scope:release-flow${TAB}VERSION
+scope:docs${TAB}docs/**
+scope:docs${TAB}README"
+
+check "derive: ** matches nested paths" 0 "scope:release-flow" \
+  derive_labels "$cfg" 'lib/deep/facts.sh'
+check "derive: ** does not match the bare directory" 1 "" \
+  bash -c 'source "$1"; [ -n "$(derive_labels "$2" lib)" ]' _ \
+  "$ROOT/actions/labels-scope/labels-scope.sh" "$cfg"
+check "derive: literal glob does not match a nested twin" 1 "" \
+  bash -c 'source "$1"; [ -n "$(derive_labels "$2" docs2/README)" ]' _ \
+  "$ROOT/actions/labels-scope/labels-scope.sh" "$cfg"
+check "derive: one label per line, config order, deduped" 0 "" \
+  bash -c 'source "$1"; got="$(derive_labels "$2" "$(printf "%s\n" README VERSION lib/x docs/a.md)")"
+    [ "$got" = "$(printf "%s\n" scope:release-flow scope:docs)" ] || { printf "%s\n" "$got"; exit 1; }' _ \
+  "$ROOT/actions/labels-scope/labels-scope.sh" "$cfg"
+check "derive: no files derives nothing" 0 "" derive_labels "$cfg" ""
+check "derive: unmatched files derive nothing" 0 "" derive_labels "$cfg" 'src/other.c'
+
+# --- parse_labeler_config: every spelling the governed repos use -------------
+# Needs yq (preinstalled on ubuntu-latest). Locally, skip with a notice so
+# the suite stays runnable in minimal environments; in CI the skip is a
+# failure — ci.yml sets CEREMONY_REQUIRE_YQ so these cases can never
+# quietly stop running there.
+
+if command -v yq >/dev/null 2>&1; then
+  parses() { parse_labeler_config <"$1"; }
+
+  # block sequences + block glob list (ceremony's own spelling)
+  cat >"$TMP/block.yml" <<'EOF'
+# a comment, as ceremony's own file carries
+scope:labels:
+  - changed-files:
+      - any-glob-to-any-file:
+          - .github/workflows/labels.yml
+          - actions/labels-reconcile/**
+EOF
+  check "parse: block style" 0 \
+    "scope:labels${TAB}actions/labels-reconcile/**" parses "$TMP/block.yml"
+
+  # quoted keys + flow glob list (box/rig's spelling)
+  cat >"$TMP/flow.yml" <<'EOF'
+"scope:cli":
+  - changed-files:
+      - any-glob-to-any-file: ["bin/**", "test/cli.sh"]
+EOF
+  check "parse: quoted key, flow list" 0 \
+    "scope:cli${TAB}bin/**" parses "$TMP/flow.yml"
+
+  # flow map inside changed-files (incubator's spelling)
+  cat >"$TMP/flowmap.yml" <<'EOF'
+"scope:core":
+  - changed-files: [{any-glob-to-any-file: ["apps/core/**"]}]
+EOF
+  check "parse: flow map entry" 0 \
+    "scope:core${TAB}apps/core/**" parses "$TMP/flowmap.yml"
+
+  # a single glob as a bare string
+  cat >"$TMP/single.yml" <<'EOF'
+scope:docs:
+  - changed-files:
+      - any-glob-to-any-file: docs/**
+EOF
+  check "parse: bare-string glob" 0 \
+    "scope:docs${TAB}docs/**" parses "$TMP/single.yml"
+
+  # the repo's real mapping parses, and rows keep config order
+  check "parse: ceremony's own labeler.yml" 0 \
+    "scope:labels${TAB}.github/labeler.yml" parses "$ROOT/.github/labeler.yml"
+
+  # refusals: unsupported shapes fail loudly, naming the label
+  cat >"$TMP/allglobs.yml" <<'EOF'
+scope:x:
+  - changed-files:
+      - all-globs-to-all-files: ["a/**"]
+EOF
+  check "parse: all-globs-to-all-files is refused" 5 \
+    "scope:x: unsupported matcher(s) all-globs-to-all-files" parses "$TMP/allglobs.yml"
+
+  cat >"$TMP/branch.yml" <<'EOF'
+scope:x:
+  - head-branch: ["^feature/"]
+EOF
+  check "parse: branch matchers are refused" 5 \
+    "scope:x: unsupported key(s) head-branch" parses "$TMP/branch.yml"
+
+  cat >"$TMP/toplist.yml" <<'EOF'
+- scope:x
+EOF
+  check "parse: non-map top level is refused" 5 \
+    "top level must be a map" parses "$TMP/toplist.yml"
+
+  cat >"$TMP/backslash.yml" <<'EOF'
+scope:x:
+  - changed-files:
+      - any-glob-to-any-file: ["a\\b/**"]
+EOF
+  check "parse: backslash escapes are refused" 5 \
+    "backslash in glob" parses "$TMP/backslash.yml"
+elif [ -n "${CEREMONY_REQUIRE_YQ:-}" ]; then
+  echo "FAIL: CEREMONY_REQUIRE_YQ is set but yq is missing — the config parse cases did not run"
+  FAIL=$((FAIL + 1))
+else
+  echo "SKIP: yq not found — parse_labeler_config cases not exercised"
+fi
+
+summary