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docs: split the two assembled-failure shapes in README

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The changelog-armed 'Red means' list credited armed with catching a
release that publishes fewer entries than its consumed fragments — armed
cannot see consumed fragments; that is changelog-assembled's merge-base
replay. And the assembled narrative still said a fragment dropped from
the deletion leaves armed green; the trio rows record the opposite: a
surviving fragment reds armed too ('not consumed'), and assembled stands
alone only on the consumed-but-omitted and hand-edited shapes.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@ -170,8 +170,13 @@ pin bump, on its own schedule (#112 D8):
mechanism outright; legacy mode guards it. **Red means** a PR entry has mechanism outright; legacy mode guards it. **Red means** a PR entry has
nowhere safe to land — a missing marker, a surviving `## Unreleased`, a nowhere safe to land — a missing marker, a surviving `## Unreleased`, a
malformed fragment — or a stamped version would publish no entries, a malformed fragment — or a stamped version would publish no entries, a
dangling grouped heading, or fewer fragments than it consumed; the dangling grouped heading, or a bare tree still carrying fragments the
message names the fix in every case. stamp did not consume (`not consumed` — re-run the assembler); the
message names the fix in every case. What this guard cannot see is a
fragment that *was* consumed but whose entry the stamp omits — the
fragment is gone from HEAD, so only
[changelog-assembled](#changelog-assembled--the-stamp-is-exactly-the-fragments)'s
merge-base replay catches that loss.
**Do not "simplify" this to "always require `## Unreleased`".** The **Do not "simplify" this to "always require `## Unreleased`".** The
unconditional form is false by construction on the ceremony PR's own tree unconditional form is false by construction on the ceremony PR's own tree
@ -202,11 +207,18 @@ passes with a green `NOTICE`, so a non-ceremony PR is never red here.
**The failure it catches** (#116): assembly is a hand-run step by design — **The failure it catches** (#116): assembly is a hand-run step by design —
the section must land in the PR's diff where the panel reads it (#112 D12) the section must land in the PR's diff where the panel reads it (#112 D12)
— and a mis-run hand step leaves no trace. Drop one fragment from the — and a mis-run hand step can leave no trace. The two failure shapes
deletion and its entry is simply absent from the release: armed is green, differ, and the guards split them exactly as
monotonic is green, and the publisher happily publishes the shortened [test/changelog-assembled.test.sh](test/changelog-assembled.test.sh)'s
section. Hand-edit one word of the assembled prose and the published trio rows record: leave a fragment **out of the deletion** and it survives
history quietly stops being what the authors wrote. The replay is what on HEAD, where
[changelog-armed](#changelog-armed--main-never-sits-disarmed) already
refuses the bare tree (`not consumed`) — this guard goes red too, naming
the entry the section lost. But **delete** a fragment while omitting its
entry from the stamp, or hand-edit one word of the assembled prose, and
nothing on HEAD is out of place: armed is green, monotonic is green, and
the publisher would happily publish history that is not what the authors
wrote. Only the merge-base replay catches those. The replay is what
makes a hand-run step safe. **This guard needs history** — same stance as makes a hand-run step safe. **This guard needs history** — same stance as
the monotonic guard: `fetch-depth: 0`, and in CI an unresolvable base is a the monotonic guard: `fetch-depth: 0`, and in CI an unresolvable base is a
hard failure, not a skip. hard failure, not a skip.